The working age population between 20 and 64 in Bulgaria will decrease by one third by 2050. According to this indicator, this country has the worst forecast in the entire European Union, shows the latest report of the Allianz Trade company (formerly Euler Hermes).
The main reasons are the demographic crisis and migration, as Bulgaria is one of the main "donors" of labour to other countries in the EU.
The report indicates that about 50% of the migrants to the labour market in the EU since the beginning of the 21st century came precisely from Bulgaria, Romania and Poland. The forecast for the contraction of the working-age population in Poland is 26% by 2050, and for Romania - 22%. It is also expected to decrease dramatically in countries such as Lithuania and Latvia. Among the main possibilities for improving the prospects in Bulgaria and the rest of the countries of the group, the analysts predictably point to an improvement in working conditions and an increase in wages, which would reduce the flow of migrants abroad.
Due to the serious demographic problems in Europe, the experts from Allianz Trade expect a deepening of the shortage of qualified labour in almost all EU countries, and by 2050, the average population between the ages of 20 and 64 will decrease by 20%. The experts considered several possible scenarios for countering the negatives in the four largest economies, Germany, France, Italy and Spain, using different combinations of instruments, including changes to labour market policies, productivity gains and attracting migrants.