MoF expects minimum excess of revenues over expenditures for the first half of 2021

Based on preliminary data and estimates the budget balance of the Consolidated Fiscal Programme (CFP) for the first half of 2021 is expected to be positive, amounting to around BGN 82 million. The improved budget position in June is mainly due to the higher proceeds as a result of the changed deadlines – from 31 March to 30 June 2021 – for submitting the 2020 annual tax returns under the Corporate Income Tax Law, as well as for payment of the corporate income tax, the tax on expenses, the tax on revenues of budget enterprises, as well as the tax due on vessels operation activity. Revenues are also positively influenced by the continuing improvement in proceeds from indirect taxes, social security and health insurance revenues, etc.

Key CFP parameters on the basis of preliminary data and estimates:

As of June 2021, CFP revenues, grants and donations are expected to be BGN 24,720 million (51.9 % of the annual estimate), registering a growth of nearly BGN 3.3 billion compared to the first half of 2020. Tax and non-tax revenues have increased by BGN 3.6 billion, while receipts in terms of grants have decreased by BGN 0.3 billion. Significant growth on a monthly basis compared to the same month of the previous year is reported in revenues from corporate taxes, VAT, excise duties, personal income tax, social security and health insurance contributions, etc.

The Consolidated Fiscal Programme expenditures, including the contribution of the Republic of Bulgaria to the EU budget, as of June 2021 are expected to amount to BGN 24,638 million, accounting for 46.9% of the annual estimates. For comparison, the expenditures under the CFP for the same period of 2020 amounted to BGN 19,821.4 million. The significant growth of expenditures in the first half of 2021 compared to the same period of the previous year is related, on the one hand, to the lower base in 2020 when the expenditures on addressing the COVID-19 pandemic were significantly lower, while as of June 2021 these expenditures are significant, and, on the other hand, to the income policy, the policies in the social sphere and the higher expenditures on the administration laid down in the 2021 State Budget of the Republic of Bulgaria Law.

Considered by economic elements, the most significant increase is reported in social and health insurance expenditures. In the area of pension expenditures, nearly BGN 630 million were spent on payment of an allowance of BGN 50 to the pensions of all pensioners for the months from January to June. In addition, pension expenditures were also influenced by the increase in the amount of the minimum contributory-service and retirement-age pension and of the maximum amount of the pension as from the beginning of the year, as well as by a baseline effect of the increase in pensions in July 2020. In the area of health insurance expenditures, these report an increase related to higher expenditures on tackling the pandemic and arrangements for financing health establishments in the context of the emergency epidemic situation, including expenditures on medicines, tests, consumables and protective equipment, funds to support front-line staff in the fight against COVID-19 (supplementary monthly remuneration of BGN 1,000), payment to medical staff for vaccination of the population against COVID-19, monthly allowance of BGN 600 for doctors, BGN 360 for nurses and midwives and BGN 120 for hospital attendants, etc. The payments under the 60/40 measure, the 80/20 measure, the “Keep Me” measure, the “Working Capital Support For SMEs Affected by the Temporary Anti-Epidemic Measures” measure administered by the NRA, etc., have contributed to the growing expenditures on subsidies for non-financial enterprises. Capital expenditures have also increased in comparison to the same period of the previous year, which is due to payments related to investment projects of the Bulgarian army, road infrastructure sites, etc.

The part of Republic of Bulgaria's contribution to the EU budget, paid from the central budget as of June 2021, amounts to BGN 796.9 million, which complies with the current legislation in the area of EU own resources.